On the Limits to Multi-modal Popularity Prediction on Instagram: A New Robust, Efficient and Explainable Baseline

Christoffer Riis, Damian Kowalczyk, Damian Kowalczyk, Lars Hansen

2021

Abstract

Our global population contributes visual content on platforms like Instagram, attempting to express themselves and engage their audiences, at an unprecedented and increasing rate. In this paper, we revisit the popularity prediction on Instagram. We present a robust, efficient, and explainable baseline for population-based popularity prediction, achieving strong ranking performance. We employ the latest methods in computer vision to maximise the information extracted from the visual modality. We use transfer learning to extract visual semantics such as concepts, scenes, and objects, allowing a new level of scrutiny in an extensive, explainable ablation study. We inform feature selection towards a robust and scalable model, but also illustrate feature interactions, offering new directions for further inquiry in computational social science. Our strongest models inform a lower limit to population-based predictability of popularity on Instagram. The models are immediately applicable to social media monitoring and influencer identification.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Riis C., Kowalczyk D. and Hansen L. (2021). On the Limits to Multi-modal Popularity Prediction on Instagram: A New Robust, Efficient and Explainable Baseline.In Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence - Volume 2: ICAART, ISBN 978-989-758-484-8, pages 1200-1209. DOI: 10.5220/0010377112001209

in Bibtex Style

@conference{icaart21,
author={Christoffer Riis and Damian Kowalczyk and Lars Hansen},
title={On the Limits to Multi-modal Popularity Prediction on Instagram: A New Robust, Efficient and Explainable Baseline},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence - Volume 2: ICAART,},
year={2021},
pages={1200-1209},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0010377112001209},
isbn={978-989-758-484-8},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence - Volume 2: ICAART,
TI - On the Limits to Multi-modal Popularity Prediction on Instagram: A New Robust, Efficient and Explainable Baseline
SN - 978-989-758-484-8
AU - Riis C.
AU - Kowalczyk D.
AU - Hansen L.
PY - 2021
SP - 1200
EP - 1209
DO - 10.5220/0010377112001209