Modelling Social Protests in the Republic of Belarus in 2020 based on Diffusion Equations

Alexandr Petukhov, Dmitry Kaminchenko

2021

Abstract

In this article, we propose a model of social activity based on diffusion equations and a comparison of the modeling results with real data of protest activity (based on data in social networks) in Belarus in 2020. A model uses the diffusion Langevin equation. The model is based on the idea that individuals interact in society through a communicative field - h. Besides, the control is introduced into the system through the dissipation function. Protest data indicators were collected using the authors' content analysis of the main hashtags associated with Belarusian protests. Then the results of modeling were compared with the obtained data and analyzed. Based on the modeling we have revealed a general similarity in dynamics and characteristic patterns as well as have made a forecast for the development of the situation in 2021.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Petukhov A. and Kaminchenko D. (2021). Modelling Social Protests in the Republic of Belarus in 2020 based on Diffusion Equations. In Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH, ISBN 978-989-758-528-9, pages 445-452. DOI: 10.5220/0010612104450452

in Bibtex Style

@conference{simultech21,
author={Alexandr Petukhov and Dmitry Kaminchenko},
title={Modelling Social Protests in the Republic of Belarus in 2020 based on Diffusion Equations},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH,},
year={2021},
pages={445-452},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0010612104450452},
isbn={978-989-758-528-9},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH,
TI - Modelling Social Protests in the Republic of Belarus in 2020 based on Diffusion Equations
SN - 978-989-758-528-9
AU - Petukhov A.
AU - Kaminchenko D.
PY - 2021
SP - 445
EP - 452
DO - 10.5220/0010612104450452