Regional Development. Analysis and Forecasting of the Number of Unemployed in the Central Federal District

Natalia Marchuk, Anton Kulentsan

2021

Abstract

The market economy is characterized by a number of parameters. One of them is competition in various fields. Which leads to restrictions in jobs and as a result to the appearance of unemployment. The unemployment rate is a rather complex socio-economic phenomenon that forms the attitude not only to local authorities, but also to the activities of the government of the Russian Federation as a whole. The economic aspect plays a very important role in the study of unemployment. However, it is necessary not to forget the various social factors that influence the sustainable development of the unemployment rate. This article is devoted to the study of changes in the main indicators of the level of the unemployed population. The dynamics of the officially registered number of unemployed people aged 15-72 in the entire Central Federal district is analyzed. The article discusses the characteristics of basic and chain indicators, calculated and quantified factors (wages, population, the increase in high-performance workplaces, the cost of a fixed set of consumer goods and services, the age structure of the population above the working age, and net migration) on the basis of which it is possible to investigate the dynamics of changes in the level of unemployed population. The analysis allowed to construct a regression model that reveals the relationship between the wages of workers, population growth in high-performance workplaces, with the cost of fixed set of consumer goods and services, the age structure of population above the working age, migration population growth and growth in the number of unemployed in all regions of the Central Federal district. The paper also makes a forecast of the distribution of the number of unemployed in the district in question for 2021.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Marchuk N. and Kulentsan A. (2021). Regional Development. Analysis and Forecasting of the Number of Unemployed in the Central Federal District. In Proceedings of the 1st International Scientific Forum on Sustainable Development of Socio-economic Systems - Volume 1: WFSDS, ISBN 978-989-758-597-5, pages 102-108. DOI: 10.5220/0010664600003223

in Bibtex Style

@conference{wfsds21,
author={Natalia Marchuk and Anton Kulentsan},
title={Regional Development. Analysis and Forecasting of the Number of Unemployed in the Central Federal District},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 1st International Scientific Forum on Sustainable Development of Socio-economic Systems - Volume 1: WFSDS,},
year={2021},
pages={102-108},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0010664600003223},
isbn={978-989-758-597-5},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 1st International Scientific Forum on Sustainable Development of Socio-economic Systems - Volume 1: WFSDS,
TI - Regional Development. Analysis and Forecasting of the Number of Unemployed in the Central Federal District
SN - 978-989-758-597-5
AU - Marchuk N.
AU - Kulentsan A.
PY - 2021
SP - 102
EP - 108
DO - 10.5220/0010664600003223