An Evaluation of Post-processed Monthly Precipitation Forecasts from Different Models in Guangdong, China

Shuai Xie, Shuai Xie, Shuai Xie, Tao Zhou, Tao Zhou, Tao Zhou, Xiaoqi Zhang, Xiaoqi Zhang, Xiaoqi Zhang, Yongqiang Wang, Yongqiang Wang, Yongqiang Wang, Hang Lin, Hang Lin, Hang Lin

2021

Abstract

Monthly precipitation forecasts are important in water resources management. In this study, the monthly precipitation forecasts of the future 1-6 months generated by five different national weather services are corrected by Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) method and merged by Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method. The predictive performance of corrected and merged forecasts is evaluated and compared with the climatology forecasts in 26 meteorological stations in Guangdong, China. The results demonstrate that the BJP-corrected forecasts are more reliable and narrower than the climatology forecasts and The BMA method can further improve the forecasting reliability and accuracy in the BJP-BMA framework. The forecasting skill of the BJP-BMA framework varies significantly with different forecast lead time (FLT). When FLT is 1 month, the raw forecasts are informative, and the BJP-BMA framework can generate significantly better forecasts than the climatology forecasts with respect to the forecasting accuracy, reliability and sharpness. When FLT is greater than 1, the information contained in raw forecasts are limited, but the BJP-BMA can still generate narrower and more reliable forecasts. In summary, the proposed BJP-BMA framework can extract useful information in the raw forecasts and generate more practical monthly precipitation forecasts.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Xie S., Zhou T., Zhang X., Wang Y. and Lin H. (2021). An Evaluation of Post-processed Monthly Precipitation Forecasts from Different Models in Guangdong, China. In Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Water Resource and Environment - Volume 1: WRE, ISBN 978-989-758-560-9, pages 76-87

in Bibtex Style

@conference{wre21,
author={Shuai Xie and Tao Zhou and Xiaoqi Zhang and Yongqiang Wang and Hang Lin},
title={An Evaluation of Post-processed Monthly Precipitation Forecasts from Different Models in Guangdong, China},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Water Resource and Environment - Volume 1: WRE,},
year={2021},
pages={76-87},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={},
isbn={978-989-758-560-9},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Water Resource and Environment - Volume 1: WRE,
TI - An Evaluation of Post-processed Monthly Precipitation Forecasts from Different Models in Guangdong, China
SN - 978-989-758-560-9
AU - Xie S.
AU - Zhou T.
AU - Zhang X.
AU - Wang Y.
AU - Lin H.
PY - 2021
SP - 76
EP - 87
DO -