Household Structure Projection: A Monte-Carlo based Approach

Wei Goh, Shu-Chen Tsai, Hung-Jui Chang, Ting-Yu Lin, Chien-Chi Chang, Mei-Lien Pan, Da-Wei Wang, Tsan-Sheng Hsu

2022

Abstract

The kernel of an agent based simulation system for spreading of infectious disease needs a so called household structure (HSD) of the area being simulated which contains a list of households with the age of each member in the household being recorded. Such a household structure is available in a Census that is usually released every 10 years. Previous researches have shown the changing of the household structure has a great impact on disease spreading patterns. It is observed that the changing of the household structure e.g., the average citizen ages and household size, is at a faster speed. However, serious infectious diseases, such as SARS (year 2002), H1N1 (year 2009) and COVID-19 (year 2019), occur with a higher frequency now than previous eras. For example, it would be bad to use HSD2010 built using Census 2010 to simulate COVID-19. In view of this situation, we need a better way to obtain a good household structure in between the Census years in order for an agent-based simulation system to be effective. Note that though a detailed Census is not available every year, aggregated information such as the number of households with a particular size, and the number of people of a particular age are usually available almost monthly. Given HSDx, the household structure for year x, and the aggregated information from year y where y > x, we propose a Monte-Carlo based approach “patching” HSDx to get an approximated HSDy. To validate our algorithm, we pick x and y = x+10 which both Censuses are available and find out the root-mean-square error (RMSE) between Census’s HSDy and generated HSDy is fairly small for x = 1990 and 2000. The spreading patterns obtained by our simulation system have good matches. We hence obtain HSD2020 to be used in your system for studying the spreading of COVID-19.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Goh W., Tsai S., Chang H., Lin T., Chang C., Pan M., Wang D. and Hsu T. (2022). Household Structure Projection: A Monte-Carlo based Approach. In Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH, ISBN 978-989-758-578-4, pages 70-79. DOI: 10.5220/0011270100003274

in Bibtex Style

@conference{simultech22,
author={Wei Goh and Shu-Chen Tsai and Hung-Jui Chang and Ting-Yu Lin and Chien-Chi Chang and Mei-Lien Pan and Da-Wei Wang and Tsan-Sheng Hsu},
title={Household Structure Projection: A Monte-Carlo based Approach},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH,},
year={2022},
pages={70-79},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0011270100003274},
isbn={978-989-758-578-4},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH,
TI - Household Structure Projection: A Monte-Carlo based Approach
SN - 978-989-758-578-4
AU - Goh W.
AU - Tsai S.
AU - Chang H.
AU - Lin T.
AU - Chang C.
AU - Pan M.
AU - Wang D.
AU - Hsu T.
PY - 2022
SP - 70
EP - 79
DO - 10.5220/0011270100003274