Dynamical Analysis for the Control of COVID-19: A Modified SEIR Model

Chenhao Zhang

2022

Abstract

Objective: The paper of this research is to establish a new infectious disease dynamics model, which can be used to evaluate the epidemic situation of covid-19 in 2019, and to evaluate the epidemic situation of covid-19 in Hubei Province based on the SEIR model. Methods: Considering that covid-19 patients with latent period have strong infectious ability, and the epidemic prevention information of the media has a positive impact on mass epidemic prevention, an optimized SEIR epidemic dynamics model considering latent period transmission ability, tracking and isolation intervention measures and mass disease awareness was established. Referring to the official epidemic data of Hubei Province from January 23 to February 24, 2020 as the initial value of the dynamic system, the paper analyzes the epidemic situation in Hubei Province based on the modified SEIR model to evaluate the impact of various measures and policies on the epidemic transmission trend. Results: The theoretical analysis of the model shows that measures such as quarantine and medical tracking can effectively inhibit the large-scale spread of the epidemic; centralized reception, layered treatment and other important measures have played a key role in the rapid decline of the peak number of infected people. Improving personal prevention awareness can curb the increase of infected people. In addition, the publicity of news media can greatly increase people's disease awareness, so as to control the development trend of epidemic situation and effectively reduce the peak number of infected people. Conclusion: the modified SEIR model can be used for theoretical analyzing of covid-19 transmission and help the government to formulate epidemic prevention policies.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Zhang C. (2022). Dynamical Analysis for the Control of COVID-19: A Modified SEIR Model. In Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Public Management, Digital Economy and Internet Technology - Volume 1: ICPDI; ISBN 978-989-758-620-0, SciTePress, pages 131-136. DOI: 10.5220/0011731600003607

in Bibtex Style

@conference{icpdi22,
author={Chenhao Zhang},
title={Dynamical Analysis for the Control of COVID-19: A Modified SEIR Model},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Public Management, Digital Economy and Internet Technology - Volume 1: ICPDI},
year={2022},
pages={131-136},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0011731600003607},
isbn={978-989-758-620-0},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Public Management, Digital Economy and Internet Technology - Volume 1: ICPDI
TI - Dynamical Analysis for the Control of COVID-19: A Modified SEIR Model
SN - 978-989-758-620-0
AU - Zhang C.
PY - 2022
SP - 131
EP - 136
DO - 10.5220/0011731600003607
PB - SciTePress