Nonlinear Analysis of the Dynamics of Sales of Electric Automobiles in the Chinese Market

Serhii Kurkula, Nataliia Maksyshko, Dmytro Ocheretin, Serhii Cheverda

2022

Abstract

The article is devoted to the research of the dynamics of sales of electric automobiles in the Chinese market using non-linear analysis tools. The relevance of the work is due, on the one hand, to the sharp development of the electric vehicle segment in the global automobile market, in which China’s market share was 45% of sales in 2020. On the other hand, the use of different approaches to forecasting the sales of electric vehicles leads to unsatisfactory results. The article analyzes the nature of the properties of the dynamics of sales of electric automobiles in the Chinese market using non-linear analysis tools. The initial data for the analysis is the time series of monthly sales volumes from January 2016 to June 2022 of the leading manufacturers of electric vehicles. For the research, three methods of nonlinear dynamics were used: the Hurst normalized range method, phase analysis, and the recurrence plots method. The calculations were carried out in the R software environment. As a result of applying the Hurst normalized range method, the fractal nature of time series, the property of trend stability, and the presence of long-term memory were revealed. The use of phase analysis made it possible to reveal cyclicity in dynamics, to evaluate the characteristics of attractors (quasi-cycles) and their features for each agent on the market. The construction of recurrence plots, their topological and quantitative analysis confirmed the deterministic nature of the dynamics. The results of the research can be used to select relevant forecasting methods and their parameters.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Kurkula S., Maksyshko N., Ocheretin D. and Cheverda S. (2022). Nonlinear Analysis of the Dynamics of Sales of Electric Automobiles in the Chinese Market. In Proceedings of 10th International Conference on Monitoring, Modeling & Management of Emergent Economy - Volume 1: M3E2; ISBN 978-989-758-640-8, SciTePress, pages 185-195. DOI: 10.5220/0011932500003432

in Bibtex Style

@conference{m3e222,
author={Serhii Kurkula and Nataliia Maksyshko and Dmytro Ocheretin and Serhii Cheverda},
title={Nonlinear Analysis of the Dynamics of Sales of Electric Automobiles in the Chinese Market},
booktitle={Proceedings of 10th International Conference on Monitoring, Modeling & Management of Emergent Economy - Volume 1: M3E2},
year={2022},
pages={185-195},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0011932500003432},
isbn={978-989-758-640-8},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of 10th International Conference on Monitoring, Modeling & Management of Emergent Economy - Volume 1: M3E2
TI - Nonlinear Analysis of the Dynamics of Sales of Electric Automobiles in the Chinese Market
SN - 978-989-758-640-8
AU - Kurkula S.
AU - Maksyshko N.
AU - Ocheretin D.
AU - Cheverda S.
PY - 2022
SP - 185
EP - 195
DO - 10.5220/0011932500003432
PB - SciTePress