Comparative Evaluation of Metaheuristic Algorithms for Hyperparameter Selection in Short-Term Weather Forecasting

Anuvab Sen, Arul Mazumder, Dibyarup Dutta, Udayon Sen, Pathikrit Syam, Sandipan Dhar

2023

Abstract

Weather forecasting plays a vital role in numerous sectors, but accurately capturing the complex dynamics of weather systems remains a challenge for traditional statistical models. Apart from Auto Regressive time forecasting models like ARIMA, deep learning techniques (Vanilla ANNs, LSTM and GRU networks) have shown promise in improving forecasting accuracy by capturing temporal dependencies. This paper explores the application of metaheuristic algorithms, namely Genetic Algorithm (GA), Differential Evolution (DE), and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to automate the search for optimal hyperparameters in these model architectures. Metaheuristic algorithms excel in global optimization, offering robustness, versatility, and scalability in handling non-linear problems. We present a comparative analysis of different model architectures integrated with metaheuristic optimization, evaluating their performance in weather forecasting based on metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results demonstrate the potential of metaheuristic algorithms in enhancing weather forecasting accuracy & helps in determining the optimal set of hyper-parameters for each model. The paper underscores the importance of harnessing advanced optimization techniques to select the most suitable metaheuristic algorithm for the given weather forecasting task.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Sen A., Mazumder A., Dutta D., Sen U., Syam P. and Dhar S. (2023). Comparative Evaluation of Metaheuristic Algorithms for Hyperparameter Selection in Short-Term Weather Forecasting. In Proceedings of the 15th International Joint Conference on Computational Intelligence - Volume 1: ECTA; ISBN 978-989-758-674-3, SciTePress, pages 238-245. DOI: 10.5220/0012187300003595

in Bibtex Style

@conference{ecta23,
author={Anuvab Sen and Arul Mazumder and Dibyarup Dutta and Udayon Sen and Pathikrit Syam and Sandipan Dhar},
title={Comparative Evaluation of Metaheuristic Algorithms for Hyperparameter Selection in Short-Term Weather Forecasting},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 15th International Joint Conference on Computational Intelligence - Volume 1: ECTA},
year={2023},
pages={238-245},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0012187300003595},
isbn={978-989-758-674-3},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 15th International Joint Conference on Computational Intelligence - Volume 1: ECTA
TI - Comparative Evaluation of Metaheuristic Algorithms for Hyperparameter Selection in Short-Term Weather Forecasting
SN - 978-989-758-674-3
AU - Sen A.
AU - Mazumder A.
AU - Dutta D.
AU - Sen U.
AU - Syam P.
AU - Dhar S.
PY - 2023
SP - 238
EP - 245
DO - 10.5220/0012187300003595
PB - SciTePress