Survival Analysis as a Risk Stratification Tool for Threshold Exceedance Forecasting

George Marinos, George Marinos, Manos Karvounis, Ioannis N. Athanasiadis

2023

Abstract

This study presents a novel framework designed for predicting threshold exceedance in time series data through the use of survival analysis techniques. Contrasting the traditional binary classification methodologies typically applied to this problem, our approach offers a unique perspective, modeling and predicting not only the occurrence but also the time-to-event information. This significant differentiation furnishes an invaluable tool for understanding and anticipating extreme events, and more importantly, it enhances decision-makers’ comprehension of temporal dynamics of such risks, enabling early intervention strategies. These facets are especially critical in various domains where timely action is essential. The effectiveness of our methodology has been empirically confirmed using both simulated and real-world datasets, showcasing our method’s precision in forecasting threshold exceedance. An illustrative application within the food safety domain, leveraging real-world data related to food recalls over time, further demonstrates the practical utility of our approach, particularly in preventing and controlling high-risk hazards like salmonella. These findings underscore the wide-ranging implications of our method, particularly in applications where understanding the temporal dynamics of risks is paramount.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Marinos G., Karvounis M. and N. Athanasiadis I. (2023). Survival Analysis as a Risk Stratification Tool for Threshold Exceedance Forecasting. In Proceedings of the 15th International Joint Conference on Knowledge Discovery, Knowledge Engineering and Knowledge Management - Volume 3: KMIS; ISBN 978-989-758-671-2, SciTePress, pages 62-72. DOI: 10.5220/0012234700003598

in Bibtex Style

@conference{kmis23,
author={George Marinos and Manos Karvounis and Ioannis N. Athanasiadis},
title={Survival Analysis as a Risk Stratification Tool for Threshold Exceedance Forecasting},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 15th International Joint Conference on Knowledge Discovery, Knowledge Engineering and Knowledge Management - Volume 3: KMIS},
year={2023},
pages={62-72},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0012234700003598},
isbn={978-989-758-671-2},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 15th International Joint Conference on Knowledge Discovery, Knowledge Engineering and Knowledge Management - Volume 3: KMIS
TI - Survival Analysis as a Risk Stratification Tool for Threshold Exceedance Forecasting
SN - 978-989-758-671-2
AU - Marinos G.
AU - Karvounis M.
AU - N. Athanasiadis I.
PY - 2023
SP - 62
EP - 72
DO - 10.5220/0012234700003598
PB - SciTePress