Forecasts and Analyzes of China's Birth Rate

Yuping He

2023

Abstract

As China's birth rate declines, the country faces increasingly serious social problems. Inspired by the era of big data, the study collected fertility data from 1949 to 2022 from China's National Bureau of Statistics. The number of samples is 74. Organize the data into a time series, and the autoregressions moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the trend of birth rate. In accordance with the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) guidelines, the final best model is ARIMA (0,1,2). The prediction of this model showed that the number of birth rate from 2023 to 2027 would be a relatively stable trend with a slight increase probably. The study is also a summary of the strengths and weaknesses of the model. Hopefully, the model can be improved in the future and the application of time series method to predict the trend of birth rate can provide effective guidance for the formulation of childbirth policies.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

He Y. (2023). Forecasts and Analyzes of China's Birth Rate. In Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Data Analysis and Machine Learning - Volume 1: DAML; ISBN 978-989-758-705-4, SciTePress, pages 66-70. DOI: 10.5220/0012819800003885

in Bibtex Style

@conference{daml23,
author={Yuping He},
title={Forecasts and Analyzes of China's Birth Rate},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Data Analysis and Machine Learning - Volume 1: DAML},
year={2023},
pages={66-70},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0012819800003885},
isbn={978-989-758-705-4},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Data Analysis and Machine Learning - Volume 1: DAML
TI - Forecasts and Analyzes of China's Birth Rate
SN - 978-989-758-705-4
AU - He Y.
PY - 2023
SP - 66
EP - 70
DO - 10.5220/0012819800003885
PB - SciTePress