Evaluating the Multifactorial Effects on SARS-CoV-2 Spread in Tokyo Metropolitan Area with an Agent-Based Model

Jianing Chu, Yu Chen

2024

Abstract

The eighth wave of Coronavirus infection in Tokyo hit high records in December 2022. This paper aims to build a Tokyo-based down-scaled simulation environment to explain the eight epidemic trends using agent-based modelling and extended SEIR denotation. Four key factors are examined in this research, that are: 1. Vaccination, 2. Virus mutation, 3. Government policy and 4. PCR test. Our investigation uncovers that the reported cases during the eight epidemic waves represent merely a fraction of the true extent of infections. Additionally, our study innovates by simulating the decline of antibodies at the individual level. Our study also innovates in combining agent-based modelling and extended SEIR modelling to simulate eight continuous epidemic waves in Tokyo, considering circumstances like Olympics, state of emergency declaration, traveling policies etc. Upon analyzing the simulated outcomes, we observe a correlation between the onset of new epidemic waves and the decrease in the population possessing antibodies. Our simulation further indicates the necessity for aligning the level of PCR testing with the available medical resources. Finally, by comparing the simulation results with actual data for the eighth wave, we forewarned of a potential resurgence in the epidemic during May and June 2023.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Chu J. and Chen Y. (2024). Evaluating the Multifactorial Effects on SARS-CoV-2 Spread in Tokyo Metropolitan Area with an Agent-Based Model. In Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Complexity, Future Information Systems and Risk - Volume 1: COMPLEXIS; ISBN 978-989-758-698-9, SciTePress, pages 30-42. DOI: 10.5220/0012726400003708

in Bibtex Style

@conference{complexis24,
author={Jianing Chu and Yu Chen},
title={Evaluating the Multifactorial Effects on SARS-CoV-2 Spread in Tokyo Metropolitan Area with an Agent-Based Model},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Complexity, Future Information Systems and Risk - Volume 1: COMPLEXIS},
year={2024},
pages={30-42},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0012726400003708},
isbn={978-989-758-698-9},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Complexity, Future Information Systems and Risk - Volume 1: COMPLEXIS
TI - Evaluating the Multifactorial Effects on SARS-CoV-2 Spread in Tokyo Metropolitan Area with an Agent-Based Model
SN - 978-989-758-698-9
AU - Chu J.
AU - Chen Y.
PY - 2024
SP - 30
EP - 42
DO - 10.5220/0012726400003708
PB - SciTePress