Epidemic Modeling and Control: An ARX Approach for Measles Containment

Paolo Di Giamberardino, Daniela Iacoviello

2024

Abstract

Measles is one of the most dangerous epidemic disease for its high reproduction number and the possible complications on already weakened patients. Effective vaccination is available since the early 60s and a suitable vaccination campaign could interrupt this epidemic disease. The most common approach for the disease description considers compartmental models, effective but requiring the identification of model parameters, generally data consuming. A different approach is data driven, that is it consideres autoregressive modeling with exogenous input. The autoregressive modeling is here considered describing measles evolution by using measurable available information, like the number of infected patients and the percentage of vaccinated individuals. A penalized control is herein determined, thus taking into account also limitation in control actions. Numerical results, based on available real data, show the effectivenes of the approach.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Di Giamberardino P. and Iacoviello D. (2024). Epidemic Modeling and Control: An ARX Approach for Measles Containment. In Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Informatics in Control, Automation and Robotics - Volume 1: ICINCO; ISBN 978-989-758-717-7, SciTePress, pages 632-639. DOI: 10.5220/0012890500003822

in Bibtex Style

@conference{icinco24,
author={Paolo Di Giamberardino and Daniela Iacoviello},
title={Epidemic Modeling and Control: An ARX Approach for Measles Containment},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Informatics in Control, Automation and Robotics - Volume 1: ICINCO},
year={2024},
pages={632-639},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0012890500003822},
isbn={978-989-758-717-7},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Informatics in Control, Automation and Robotics - Volume 1: ICINCO
TI - Epidemic Modeling and Control: An ARX Approach for Measles Containment
SN - 978-989-758-717-7
AU - Di Giamberardino P.
AU - Iacoviello D.
PY - 2024
SP - 632
EP - 639
DO - 10.5220/0012890500003822
PB - SciTePress