Transmission Analysis and Future Trend Prediction of Deyr City's B1H3 Virus by SIR Modelling

Ziyi Zhao

2024

Abstract

This study analysed the transmission dynamics of a virus using data from bat monitoring and hospital testing. This research investigated the positivity rate and infection spread in bat populations and human patients. The study employed a Poisson distribution model to evaluate bat infection rates and a linear regression model to estimate the virus's doubling time and basic reproduction number 𝑅 0 Additionally, an epidemic branching process simulation was conducted to predict future virus transmission paths. The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model was utilized to understand and predict epidemic dynamics. The results indicate a moderate transmission potential with a doubling time of 41.6232 days and 𝑅 0 of 1.1665. The simulation emphasized the importance of early detection and intervention, providing valuable insights for public health strategies. By integrating various statistical and mathematical models, this research offers a comprehensive approach to understanding the transmission mechanisms of the virus. The findings highlight the interconnectedness of bat and human infections, underscoring the necessity of a holistic approach that considers the health of humans, animals, and the environment. The methodology in this research can also be applied to other zoonotic diseases, aiding in the development of robust monitoring and response systems. Future research should focus on refining models with more granular data and exploring the impacts of different intervention strategies on controlling virus spread.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Zhao Z. (2024). Transmission Analysis and Future Trend Prediction of Deyr City's B1H3 Virus by SIR Modelling. In Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Innovations in Applied Mathematics, Physics and Astronomy - Volume 1: IAMPA; ISBN 978-989-758-722-1, SciTePress, pages 131-135. DOI: 10.5220/0013001500004601

in Bibtex Style

@conference{iampa24,
author={Ziyi Zhao},
title={Transmission Analysis and Future Trend Prediction of Deyr City's B1H3 Virus by SIR Modelling},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Innovations in Applied Mathematics, Physics and Astronomy - Volume 1: IAMPA},
year={2024},
pages={131-135},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0013001500004601},
isbn={978-989-758-722-1},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Innovations in Applied Mathematics, Physics and Astronomy - Volume 1: IAMPA
TI - Transmission Analysis and Future Trend Prediction of Deyr City's B1H3 Virus by SIR Modelling
SN - 978-989-758-722-1
AU - Zhao Z.
PY - 2024
SP - 131
EP - 135
DO - 10.5220/0013001500004601
PB - SciTePress