The Value of Perfect Forecasting in Optimizing the Management of Energy Communities

Patrizia Beraldi, Luigi Gallo, Alessandra Rende

2025

Abstract

The rise of Renewable Energy Communities (REC) is transforming energy systems by promoting decentralized renewable energy production, but their operational efficiency is hindered by the inherent uncertainty of production sources like photovoltaic systems. Accurate day-ahead forecasting is pivotal for optimizing REC energy management strategies, balancing production, consumption, and grid reliance. This study evaluates five machine learning (ML) models—Support Vector Regression, Random Forest, Adaptive Boosting, Gradient Boost Regression Tree, and Stacking Generalization—against standard accuracy metrics and introduces the Value of Perfect Forecast, a novel metric that quantifies the economic impact of forecast inaccuracies on REC optimization. Results indicate that, while some models perform better in standard accuracy metrics, others are more effective in reducing the economic impact of forecast errors, emphasizing the necessity of aligning forecasting approaches with optimization goals to achieve meaningful operational improvements.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Beraldi P., Gallo L. and Rende A. (2025). The Value of Perfect Forecasting in Optimizing the Management of Energy Communities. In Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems - Volume 1: ICORES; ISBN 978-989-758-732-0, SciTePress, pages 177-185. DOI: 10.5220/0013343700003893

in Bibtex Style

@conference{icores25,
author={Patrizia Beraldi and Luigi Gallo and Alessandra Rende},
title={The Value of Perfect Forecasting in Optimizing the Management of Energy Communities},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems - Volume 1: ICORES},
year={2025},
pages={177-185},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0013343700003893},
isbn={978-989-758-732-0},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Operations Research and Enterprise Systems - Volume 1: ICORES
TI - The Value of Perfect Forecasting in Optimizing the Management of Energy Communities
SN - 978-989-758-732-0
AU - Beraldi P.
AU - Gallo L.
AU - Rende A.
PY - 2025
SP - 177
EP - 185
DO - 10.5220/0013343700003893
PB - SciTePress