Bus Arrival Time Prediction via Hybrid LSTM Using GPS-Derived Run and Dwell Times

Aigerim Mansurova, Aiganym Mansurova, Aivar Sakhipov

2025

Abstract

Accurate bus arrival time prediction is essential for improving the reliability and efficiency of public transportation systems. While existing models often rely on complex ensemble architectures or extensive contextual data, this study explores a simplified approach using a hybrid Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. The model processes sequential features, such as stop IDs, run times, and dwell times, through LSTM layers while integrating contextual information, such as trip start hour and day of the week, via dense layers. Comprehensive experiments on GPS data from buses in Kandy, Sri Lanka, demonstrate the model’s superior performance against state-of-the-art baselines. The proposed model achieves a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 13.4 seconds, a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 10.32%, and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 24.26 seconds, significantly outperforming alternative methods.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Mansurova A., Mansurova A. and Sakhipov A. (2025). Bus Arrival Time Prediction via Hybrid LSTM Using GPS-Derived Run and Dwell Times. In Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Vehicle Technology and Intelligent Transport Systems - Volume 1: VEHITS; ISBN 978-989-758-745-0, SciTePress, pages 514-519. DOI: 10.5220/0013349200003941

in Bibtex Style

@conference{vehits25,
author={Aigerim Mansurova and Aiganym Mansurova and Aivar Sakhipov},
title={Bus Arrival Time Prediction via Hybrid LSTM Using GPS-Derived Run and Dwell Times},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Vehicle Technology and Intelligent Transport Systems - Volume 1: VEHITS},
year={2025},
pages={514-519},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0013349200003941},
isbn={978-989-758-745-0},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF

JO - Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Vehicle Technology and Intelligent Transport Systems - Volume 1: VEHITS
TI - Bus Arrival Time Prediction via Hybrid LSTM Using GPS-Derived Run and Dwell Times
SN - 978-989-758-745-0
AU - Mansurova A.
AU - Mansurova A.
AU - Sakhipov A.
PY - 2025
SP - 514
EP - 519
DO - 10.5220/0013349200003941
PB - SciTePress